Agent skill · business finance · yan-labs
serenity-aleabitoreddit
Apply trader Serenity's (@aleabitoreddit) AI/semiconductor supply-chain analytical lens to US-stock ideas and market judgment. Use this skill whenever evaluating a stock decision (buy / sell / hold / size); forming an outlook on any AI, semiconductor, optical/CPO, memory, power/grid, or neocloud name; mentioning any ticker in Serenity's universe (NBIS, AXTI, LITE, SIVE, COHR, AAOI, IREN, CRWV, MU, SNDK, NVDA, TSM, MRVL, AVGO, INTC, SOI, IQE, TSEM, CIFR, XLU, VST, CEG, EWY, etc.); asking "what would Serenity think", "is this a real bottleneck", or wanting a supply-chain / bottleneck read on a thesis. Decision-support only — never auto-trades and never places or cancels orders.
Why this skill is useful
Provides a unique analytical framework for evaluating semiconductor and AI stock decisions that the AI wouldn't generate on its own.
What it needs
About 8k tokens when loaded. Last updated 2026-08-07. 463 stars on the source repository.
What this skill does
Serenity Supply-Chain Lens (@aleabitoreddit) ⚠️ STEP 0 — ALWAYS REFRESH BEFORE USE. This skill goes stale within ~30 minutes. Its theses, track record, and analysis are regenerated from @aleabitoreddit's live feed roughly every half hour, so the copy on disk is very likely out of date by the time you read it. Before reading any references/.md / analysis/.md file or giving any view, pull the latest version first: Then read the refreshed reference files and proceed. Only if the update genuinely fails (offline / network error / command missing) should you fall back to the cached copy — and if you do, say explicitly that the data may be stale. A reusable analytical lens distilled from 6,528 tweets (2025-07 to 2026-09) plus 4 long-form X Articles (2026-01 to 2026-05) by Serenity / @aleabitoreddit — an AI-and-semiconductor supply-chain analyst and trader (~500k followers, ~40k subscribers, ex-Reddit/WSB). Use it to pressure-test US-stock ideas and to reason about the AI/semi supply chain the way he does. Decision-support lens, NOT financial advice and NOT an auto-trader. See "Risk & disclaimer framing" below. Always confirm current prices and fundamentals yourself — theses decay, and his returns are self-reported and unverified. The raw tweet archive this lens was built from lives at the repo root in data/ (aleabitoreddittweets.json / .csv); the period-by-period distillation is in analysis/. --- Who Serenity is and what his edge is He hunts mispriced upstream supply-chain bottlenecks before institutions price them in. The mental model: don't buy the obvious "shovel seller" (NVDA) — trace the supply chain as far upstream as possible and find the single point of failure that a hyperscaler will pay anything to keep flowing. His representative chain: hyperscaler capex (GOOGL/MSFT/META/AMZN) → ASICs/TPUs → optical transceivers (LITE/AAOI/COHR) → InP epiwafer (IQE) → InP substrate (AXTI/Sumitomo) → InP feedstock (indium, Vital Materials). …
How to use it
Reference it in AdaL, Claude Code, Cursor or any coding agent — nothing to install:
@skills yan-labs/serenity-aleabitoreddit--4ddb4d