Agent skill · business finance · tradermonty
us-market-bubble-detector
Evaluates market bubble risk through quantitative data-driven analysis using the revised Minsky/Kindleberger framework v2.1. Prioritizes objective metrics (Put/Call, VIX, margin debt, breadth, IPO data) over subjective impressions. Features strict qualitative adjustment criteria with confirmation bias prevention. Supports practical investment decisions with mandatory data collection and mechanical scoring. Use when user asks about bubble risk, valuation concerns, or profit-taking timing.
Why this skill is useful
Adds a comprehensive quantitative analysis framework for evaluating market bubble risk, including specific data collection and scoring scripts that enhance investment decision-making capabilities.
What it needs
About 11k tokens when loaded. Last updated 2026-08-06. 2,581 stars on the source repository.
What this skill does
US Market Bubble Detection Skill (Revised v2.1) Key Revisions in v2.1 Critical Changes from v2.0: 1. ✅ Mandatory Quantitative Data Collection - Use measured values, not impressions or speculation 2. ✅ Clear Threshold Settings - Specific numerical criteria for each indicator 3. ✅ Two-Phase Evaluation Process - Quantitative evaluation → Qualitative adjustment (strict order) 4. ✅ Stricter Qualitative Criteria - Max +3 points (reduced from +5), requires measurable evidence 5. ✅ Confirmation Bias Prevention - Explicit checklist to avoid over-scoring 6. ✅ Granular Risk Phases - Added "Elevated Risk" phase (8-9 points) for nuanced risk management --- When to Use This Skill Use this skill when: English: User asks "Is the market in a bubble?" or "Are we in a bubble?" User seeks advice on profit-taking, new entry timing, or short-selling decisions User reports social phenomena (non-investors entering, media frenzy, IPO flood) User mentions narratives like "this time is different" or "revolutionary technology" becoming mainstream User consults about risk management for existing positions Japanese: ユーザーが「今の相場はバブルか?」と尋ねる 投資の利確・新規参入・空売りのタイミング判断を求める 社会現象(非投資家の参入、メディア過熱、IPO氾濫)を観察し懸念を表明 「今回は違う」「革命的技術」などの物語が主流化している状況を報告 保有ポジションのリスク管理方法を相談 --- Evaluation Process (Strict Order) Phase 1: Mandatory Quantitative Data Collection CRITICAL: Always collect the following data before starting evaluation 1.1 Market Structure Data (Highest Priority) 1.2 Leverage & Positioning Data 1.3 IPO & New Issuance Data ⚠️ CRITICAL: Do NOT proceed with evaluation without Phase 1 data collection --- Phase 2: Quantitative Evaluation (Quantitative Scoring) Score mechanically based on collected data using the following criteria: Indicator 1: Put/Call Ratio (Market Sentiment) Indicator 2: Volatility Suppression + New Highs Indicator 3: Leverage (Margin Debt Balance) Indicator 4: IPO Market Overheating Indicator 5: Breadth Anomaly (Narrow Leadership) Indicator 6: Price Acceleration --- Phase 3: Qualitative Adjustm …
How to use it
Reference it in AdaL, Claude Code, Cursor or any coding agent — nothing to install:
@skills tradermonty/us-market-bubble-detector--6dec68