Agent skill · data analytics · tradermonty
cot-contrarian-detector
Detect crowded speculative positioning in CFTC futures markets (COT report analysis) to find contrarian setups using Jason Shapiro's methodology. Screens large-speculator ("non-commercial") net positioning across 65 futures markets (indices, rates, FX, metals, energy, crypto) via the FMP Commitment of Traders API, computes a 3-year and 26-week COT Index per market, and classifies extremes as CROWDED_LONG / CROWDED_SHORT. Use when the user asks about COT report analysis, crowded positioning, "who is trapped", speculative positioning extremes, contrarian futures setups, or wants to run Jason Shapiro-style analysis. This skill automates crowding DETECTION only (step 1 of 5) — it does not generate trade signals by itself.
Why this skill is useful
Adds a Python script for automating COT report analysis and crowding detection that is not commonly available in public resources.
What it needs
Requires python installed locally. Requires fmp account access. About 4k tokens when loaded. Last updated 2026-08-06. 2,581 stars on the source repository.
What this skill does
COT Contrarian Detector Overview Implements step 1 of Jason Shapiro's COT (Commitment of Traders) contrarian process: detect when large speculators are crowded into one side of a futures market. Crowded positioning is a precondition for a contrarian trade, not a trade signal — a market only becomes tradable once crowding is confirmed by a news failure and price-action reversal (steps 2-3), which this skill guides the user through manually. Core thesis (Shapiro): Large speculators (hedge funds, CTAs, momentum traders) tend to be maximally positioned at trend exhaustion, not trend inception. When they are already crowded onto one side, the next big move is statistically more likely to run them over than to reward them further. Fade the speculators, not the commercials (commercials hedge for structural reasons and are not a crowd-psychology signal). When to Use This Skill English: "What markets are the speculators crowded into right now?" "Run a COT report analysis" / "Show me COT positioning extremes" "Is anyone 'trapped' in gold / the dollar / bonds right now?" User wants to find contrarian futures setups User asks for a Jason Shapiro-style COT screen Japanese: 「COTレポートで買われすぎ・売られすぎのポジションを調べて」 「投機筋が偏っている市場は？」 「ジェイソン・シャピロ式の逆張り分析をして」 Do NOT use when: The user wants a trade signal right now — crowding alone is not actionable; see Guardrails below The user is asking about individual equities — COT reports cover CFTC futures markets only (indices, rates, FX, metals, energy, agri, crypto), not single stocks Prerequisites FMP API Key: Required. Set FMPAPIKEY environment variable or pass --api-key. COT endpoints require an FMP Premium+ plan — a free-tier key will not have access. Python 3.9+ with requests installed. API Budget: One call per market (23 for --core, up to ~65 for the full universe), plus one call for the market list when neither --symbols nor --core is given. …
How to use it
Reference it in AdaL, Claude Code, Cursor or any coding agent — nothing to install:
@skills tradermonty/cot-contrarian-detector