Agent skill · product strategy · sickn33
progressive-estimation
Estimate AI-assisted and hybrid human+agent development work with research-backed PERT statistics and calibration feedback loops
Why this skill is useful
Provides domain-specific knowledge on estimating hybrid human+agent development work using PERT statistics and calibration feedback loops.
What it needs
About 2k tokens when loaded. Last updated 2026-08-07. 44,571 stars on the source repository.
What this skill does
Progressive Estimation Estimate AI-assisted and hybrid human+agent development work using research-backed formulas with PERT statistics, confidence bands, and calibration feedback loops. Overview Progressive Estimation adapts to your team's working mode — human-only, hybrid, or agent-first — applying the right velocity model and multipliers for each. It produces statistical estimates rather than gut feelings. When to Use This Skill Estimating development tasks where AI agents handle part of the work Sprint planning with hybrid human+agent teams Batch sizing a backlog (handles 5 or 500 issues) Staffing and capacity planning with agent multipliers Release date forecasting with confidence intervals How It Works 1. Mode Detection — Determines if the team works human-only, hybrid, or agent-first 2. Task Classification — Categorizes by size (XS–XL), complexity, and risk 3. Formula Application — Applies research-backed multipliers grounded in empirical studies 4. PERT Calculation — Produces expected values using three-point estimation 5. Confidence Bands — Generates P50, P75, P90 intervals 6. Output Formatting — Formats for Linear, JIRA, ClickUp, GitHub Issues, Monday, or GitLab 7. Calibration — Feeds back actuals to improve future estimates Examples Single task: "Estimate building a REST API with authentication using Claude Code" Batch mode: "Estimate these 12 JIRA tickets for our next sprint" With context: "We have 3 developers using AI agents for ~60% of implementation. …
How to use it
Reference it in AdaL, Claude Code, Cursor or any coding agent — nothing to install:
@skills sickn33/progressive-estimation--be4c80