--- name: pp-prediction-goat description: "Every Polymarket and Kalshi market in one slim agent-native CLI, with cross-venue topic search and screens no other... Trigger phrases: `what are the odds on`, `polymarket odds for`, `kalshi odds for`, `find prediction markets for`, `what's trending on polymarket`, `what's resolving this week`, `compare polymarket and kalshi on`, `use prediction-goat`, `run prediction-goat`." author: "Matt Van Horn" license: "Apache-2.0" argument-hint: " [args] | install cli|mcp" allowed-tools: "Read Bash" metadata: openclaw: requires: bins: - prediction-goat-pp-cli --- # Prediction GOAT — Printing Press CLI ## Prerequisites: Install the CLI This skill drives the `prediction-goat-pp-cli` binary. You must verify the CLI is installed before invoking any command from this skill. If it is missing, install it first: 1. Install via the Printing Press installer: ```bash npx -y @mvanhorn/printing-press-library install prediction-goat --cli-only ``` 2. Verify: `prediction-goat-pp-cli --version` 3. Ensure `$GOPATH/bin` (or `$HOME/go/bin`) is on `$PATH`. If the `npx` install fails (no Node, offline, etc.), fall back to a direct Go install (requires Go 1.26.6 or newer): ```bash go install github.com/mvanhorn/printing-press-library/library/payments/prediction-goat/cmd/prediction-goat-pp-cli@latest ``` If `--version` reports "command not found" after install, the install step did not put the binary on `$PATH`. Do not proceed with skill commands until verification succeeds. Read-only by design and by CI lint - the binary structurally cannot trade. `topic ` returns every related Polymarket + Kalshi market/event/tag in one ~3KB ranked bundle (vs the official Polymarket CLI's ~250KB firehose). Local SQLite + FTS5 keeps queries instant and free after one sync. Six screens (`trending`, `resolving`, `liquid`, `mispriced`, `movers`, `new`) cover the workflows agents and odds researchers run every week. ## When to Use This CLI Reach for prediction-goat-pp-cli when an agent needs current prediction-market odds across both Polymarket and Kalshi without trading. The killer commands are `topic`, `compare`, and the six screens - every other command exists so power users can drill into one venue or one market. The CLI is read-only by structural CI guarantee: it cannot place orders, hold a wallet, or sign trades, which makes it safe to embed in agent toolchains. ## Unique Capabilities These capabilities aren't available in any other tool for this API. ### Cross-venue intelligence - `topic` - Get every related Polymarket and Kalshi market for a topic in one slim ranked ~3KB bundle - kanye, argentina, chatgpt-5. _When an agent needs current odds on a topic, this is the one-call answer across both venues without fanning out to two platform tools and re-ranking by hand._ ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli topic kanye --json ``` - `mispriced` - Find same-outcome markets where Polymarket and Kalshi disagree on implied probability by more than a threshold. _The clearest signal that one venue is wrong or one side is mispricing - useful for calibration research, not trading._ ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli mispriced --threshold 0.05 --json ``` - `compare` - Side-by-side YES/NO and implied probability for the same topic across Polymarket and Kalshi. _Tells an agent or analyst 'which venue has the better/different number on this outcome' in one read-only call._ ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli compare 'arizona basketball' --json ``` - `markets diff` - Field-by-field structural diff between a specific Polymarket market and a specific Kalshi market. _When you already know the two slugs/tickers (e.g. from `topic `), diff shows you exactly where the venues disagree._ ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli markets diff

--json ``` ### Discovery walks - `polymarket event-of` - Look up the parent event slug for any Polymarket market slug. _The reliable way to anchor into multi-outcome event families without guessing slug suffixes (the gamma frontend appends -467, -595 etc)._ ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli polymarket event-of will-ghana-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup ``` - `polymarket siblings` - List every sibling market under the parent event of a known market slug. _One call returns every team in a World Cup event, every draft slot, every WCF candidate, with prices. The path that works when topic + public-search both miss the long tail._ ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli polymarket siblings will-ghana-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup --agent ``` - `kalshi-series-search` - Substring search over locally synced Kalshi series tickers and titles. _Faster + higher recall than `topic` when you know roughly what you're looking for (e.g. searching WEST surfaces KXNBAWEST, the conference championship series with $29M of volume)._ ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli kalshi-series-search WEST --agent ``` ### Screens - `trending` - Top movers by 24h volume across both venues, ranked. _One command answers 'what should I be watching today' without scraping two homepages._ ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli trending --json --limit 20 ``` - `resolving` - Markets resolving in the next week/month/days, sorted by liquidity. _Tells an agent 'what's about to settle' without re-paging two cursors._ ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli resolving --week --json ``` - `liquid` - Markets above a normalized volume/liquidity floor across both venues. _Filters out thin markets that will move on a single 100-dollar bet._ ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli liquid --min-volume 100000 --json ``` - `movers` - Biggest implied-probability deltas over a 24h or 7d window across both venues. _Surfaces narrative shifts (price-driven) vs hype shifts (volume-driven from )._ ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli movers --window 7d --json ``` - `new` - Markets created in the last N days across both venues. _Newly listed markets are where the alpha and mispricings live._ ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli new --days 7 --json ``` ## Command Reference comments - Comment system and user interactions - `prediction-goat-pp-cli comments get-by-id` - Get comments by comment id - `prediction-goat-pp-cli comments get-by-user-address` - Get comments by user address - `prediction-goat-pp-cli comments list` - List comments events - Event management and event-related operations - `prediction-goat-pp-cli events get` - Get event by id - `prediction-goat-pp-cli events get-by-slug` - Get event by slug - `prediction-goat-pp-cli events get-creator` - Get event creator by id - `prediction-goat-pp-cli events list` - List events - `prediction-goat-pp-cli events list-creators` - List event creators - `prediction-goat-pp-cli events list-keyset` - Returns events using cursor-based (keyset) pagination for stable, efficient paging through large result sets. Use... - `prediction-goat-pp-cli events list-pagination` - List events (paginated) - `prediction-goat-pp-cli events list-sport-results` - List sport events results markets - Market data and market-related operations - `prediction-goat-pp-cli markets get` - Get market by id - `prediction-goat-pp-cli markets get-abridged` - Query abridged markets by information filters - `prediction-goat-pp-cli markets get-by-slug` - Get market by slug - `prediction-goat-pp-cli markets get-information` - Query markets by information filters - `prediction-goat-pp-cli markets list` - List markets - `prediction-goat-pp-cli markets list-keyset` - Returns markets using cursor-based (keyset) pagination for stable, efficient paging through large result sets. Use... profiles - User profile management - `prediction-goat-pp-cli profiles ` - Get public profile by user address public-profile - Manage public profile - `prediction-goat-pp-cli public-profile` - Get public profile by wallet address public-search - Manage public search - `prediction-goat-pp-cli public-search` - Search markets, events, and profiles series - Series management and related operations - `prediction-goat-pp-cli series get` - Get series by id - `prediction-goat-pp-cli series list` - List series series-summary - Manage series summary - `prediction-goat-pp-cli series-summary get-by-id` - Get series summary by id - `prediction-goat-pp-cli series-summary get-by-slug` - Get series summary by slug sports - Sports-related endpoints including teams and game data - `prediction-goat-pp-cli sports get-market-types` - Get valid sports market types - `prediction-goat-pp-cli sports get-metadata` - Get sports metadata information status - Manage status - `prediction-goat-pp-cli status` - Gamma API Health check tags - Tag management and related tag operations - `prediction-goat-pp-cli tags get` - Get tag by id - `prediction-goat-pp-cli tags get-by-slug` - Get tag by slug - `prediction-goat-pp-cli tags get-related-by-slug` - Get related tags (relationships) by tag slug - `prediction-goat-pp-cli tags get-related-to-atag-by-slug` - Get tags related to a tag slug - `prediction-goat-pp-cli tags list` - List tags teams - Manage teams - `prediction-goat-pp-cli teams get` - Get team by id - `prediction-goat-pp-cli teams list` - List teams ### Finding the right command When you know what you want to do but not which command does it, ask the CLI directly: ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli which "" ``` `which` resolves a natural-language capability query to the best matching command from this CLI's curated feature index. Exit code `0` means at least one match; exit code `2` means no confident match - fall back to `--help` or use a narrower query. ## Recipes ### Find every market for a topic across both venues ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli topic kanye --json --select markets.title,markets.venue,markets.yesProbability,markets.endDate ``` Slim ranked bundle of every related PM + Kalshi market. `--select` reduces to four fields per row; an agent sees ~1KB instead of the firehose. ### What's settling this week? ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli resolving --week --json --select title,venue,endDate,liquidity --limit 10 ``` Local SQL filter on end_date < now+7d across both venues, sorted by liquidity descending. `--select` keeps the response tiny. ### Side-by-side odds comparison ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli compare 'arizona basketball' --json ``` Resolves the topic to paired markets and renders YES/NO + implied prob for each venue side-by-side. Tells you exactly where PM and Kalshi disagree. ### Enumerate every child market under a Kalshi event When the event ticker is known (often discovered via `kalshi-series-search` then `kalshi events list --series`), one call returns every child market with live prices: ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli kalshi events get KXMENWORLDCUP-26 --with-markets --agent ``` Passes `with_nested_markets=true` to the upstream `/events/{ticker}` endpoint. The response includes a `markets` array with ticker, title, yes_sub_title, status, yes_ask_dollars, no_ask_dollars, volume_24h_fp, and expiration_time for each child. This is the lightweight alternative to a full sync walk when you only need one event's children. ### List every Kalshi event under a series ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli kalshi events list --series KXMENWORLDCUP --agent ``` Filters `/events` by `series_ticker`. The `--series` flag forces `--data-source live` since the local store doesn't index by series ticker. Use this before `kalshi events get --with-markets` when you don't know the exact event ticker — series → event → markets in three calls. ### Catch mispricings across venues ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli mispriced --threshold 0.05 --json --select pair.pm.title,pair.kalshi.title,delta ``` Returns same-outcome market pairs where implied probabilities diverge by 5+ percentage points. Slim output via `--select`. Untraded Kalshi markets (those carrying the platform default 17c ask with zero volume) are filtered before pairing so the result is actionable divergence, not noise. ### What are the odds X wins event Y? (event-walk recipe) When you know one outcome's market slug but want every sibling under the same multi-outcome event (e.g. all 48 World Cup teams or all 14 NBA lottery picks), walk from any known slug to the parent event and back to all siblings: ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli polymarket siblings will-ghana-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup --agent ``` Returns the parent event metadata plus every sibling market with `yesPercent` populated. Bypasses the upstream `/public-search` endpoint which goes stale for celebrity and multi-outcome hub topics. Pair with `polymarket event-of ` when you only want the parent event slug. ### Find a Kalshi series by substring ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli kalshi-series-search WEST --agent ``` Substring grep over locally synced `kalshi_series` rows. Useful when the FTS ranker buries the series ticker you want (e.g. KXNBAWEST below higher-term-frequency matches). Requires a prior `prediction-goat-pp-cli kalshi sync`. ### Apples-to-apples cross-venue probabilities Every priced row in JSON output carries both `yesProbability` (0-1 float, canonical machine field) and `yesPercent` (rounded 0-100, for display). Always surface `yesPercent` to humans; use `yesProbability` for math. mispriced pairs additionally carry `deltaPercent` alongside the canonical `delta`. Kalshi markets without real trading (no last price, no volume, wide spread overshooting $1.00) carry `untraded: true` and the text-mode YES column shows `untraded` instead of a misleading platform-default percent. ## Auth Setup No authentication required. Run `prediction-goat-pp-cli doctor` to verify setup. ## Agent Mode Add `--agent` to any command. Expands to: `--json --compact --no-input --no-color --yes`. - Pipeable - JSON on stdout, errors on stderr - Filterable - `--select` keeps a subset of fields. Dotted paths descend into nested structures; arrays traverse element-wise. Critical for keeping context small on verbose APIs: ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli comments list --agent --select id,name,status ``` - Previewable - `--dry-run` shows the request without sending - Offline-friendly - sync/search commands can use the local SQLite store when available - Non-interactive - never prompts, every input is a flag - Explicit retries - use `--idempotent` only when an already-existing create should count as success ### Response envelope Commands that read from the local store or the API wrap output in a provenance envelope: ```json { "meta": {"source": "live" | "local", "synced_at": "...", "reason": "..."}, "results": } ``` Parse `.results` for data and `.meta.source` to know whether it's live or local. A human-readable `N results (live)` summary is printed to stderr only when stdout is a terminal AND no machine-format flag (`--json`, `--csv`, `--compact`, `--quiet`, `--plain`, `--select`) is set - piped/agent consumers and explicit-format runs get pure JSON on stdout. ## Automatic learning Two-call protocol: `recall` before discovery, `teach &` before emitting. The CLI does entity-aware match validation AND surfaces stored playbooks for the query family; you read the envelope and follow the six-branch decision tree. Skipping either side costs you free recall hits in future sessions. ### Step 1: `recall` before any discovery Before `topic`, `compare`, `polymarket siblings`, `kalshi events list`, or any other discovery command on a new user question, run: ```bash prediction-goat-pp-cli recall "" --agent ``` The response envelope: ```json { "query": "...", "normalized": "world cup", "query_entities": ["England"], "found": true | false, "match_score": 0.0, "results": [ { "resource_id": "...", "resource_type": "...", "venue": "...", "confidence": 2, "entity_match": "exact|partial|unknown", "source": "taught|preseed|recipe", "warnings": ["..."] } ], "mismatches": [ /* only when --debug-mismatches */ ], "warnings": [ /* top-level */ ], "playbook": { "query_family": "...", "playbook": { "steps": [ { "cmd": "kalshi events get $EVENT --with-markets", "purpose": "..." }, ... ], "entity_slots": ["$TEAM", "$EVENT", "$SERIES"], "expected_tool_calls": 2 }, "slots_resolved": { "$TEAM": { "token": "portugal", "canonical": "Portugal" } }, "notes": "kalshi events list pages by created_at desc; --series forces --data-source live" }, "notes": "kalshi events list pages by created_at desc; --series forces --data-source live" } ``` ### Step 2: six-branch decision tree Read `playbook`, `notes`, `results[0]`, and warnings in that order: ``` if Playbook present: -> READ Playbook.notes verbatim FIRST (workarounds + gotchas the CLI surface doesn't expose) -> replay Playbook.steps in order, substituting Playbook.slots_resolved entries for the entity slot tokens. If a step's slot is unresolved, fall back to discovery for that step only. -> Playbook.expected_tool_calls is a budget; if you find yourself running materially more, record the divergence via teach-playbook at end-of-session. elif Notes present (no Playbook): -> read Notes verbatim before any discovery step; they carry known gotchas for this query family even when no structured choreography exists yet. elif Found AND Results[0].EntityMatch == "exact" AND Results[0].Confidence >= 2: -> skip discovery; fetch live prices for Results[*].ResourceID in parallel (kalshi markets get , markets get-by-slug , etc.) elif Found AND Results[0].EntityMatch == "partial": -> candidate hint, NOT a hit; read the resource title to validate before trusting elif (any row in Mismatches[] when --debug-mismatches was passed): -> treat as cold start; the stored learning is for a different entity (e.g., a "Portugal" learning won't satisfy an "England" query — different canonical) else: // Found == false, no playbook, no notes -> cold start; run discovery normally; teach the answer afterward AND record a playbook + notes via teach-playbook so the next session of the same family is faster. ``` Playbook and Notes are orthogonal to the per-resource path. A recall response can carry both a Playbook AND a Results[] hit -- use both: the Playbook tells you which choreography to run; the resource hits short-circuit specific steps. Default to skipping `mismatches`; pass `--debug-mismatches` only when investigating cold-start surprises. The three playbooks prediction-goat ships out of the box cover the highest-volume query shapes: `odds_for_team` (single-team odds inside a multi-outcome event), `event_markets` (every child market under a specific Kalshi event or Polymarket parent event), and `series_summary` (Kalshi series header + active events + top markets). Each ships with notes capturing the dogfood-discovered gotchas for that shape (untraded-flag filtering, --series forces live data-source, parent-vs-child ticker disambiguation). ### Step 3: always read `warnings` - `parent_event_when_child_exists`: do NOT fetch the parent. The warning carries the suggested child ticker; fetch that instead even when the parent ticker is in `Results`. - `low_confidence`: row exists at `confidence<2`. Treat as a hint, not a skip-discovery hit. - `resource_not_in_store`: the local store doesn't have the resource the learning points at. The match validator couldn't classify entities — direct-fetch and re-evaluate. - `cro