Agent skill · product strategy · borghei
scenario-war-room
Cross-functional what-if modeling for compound adversity -- shows how one problem cascades into the next. Use when facing complex risk scenarios, strategic decisions with major downside, or multi-variable threats.
Why this skill is useful
Provides a structured framework for modeling complex risk scenarios that the AI wouldn't generate on its own.
What it needs
About 11k tokens when loaded. Last updated 2026-07-21. 462 stars on the source repository.
What this skill does
Scenario War Room Tier: POWERFUL Category: C-Level Advisory Tags: scenario planning, war room, risk modeling, cascade effects, contingency planning, pre-mortem, crisis simulation Overview The Scenario War Room models cascading what-if scenarios across all business functions. Not single-assumption stress tests -- compound adversity that shows how one problem creates the next, and where the cascade can be interrupted. Every scenario produces concrete hedges with costs, owners, and deadlines. --- When to Use A major risk has probability above 15% and impact above 20% of ARR Two or more threats could plausibly co-occur A strategic decision has significant downside if wrong Board or investors are asking "what's the worst case?" Pre-mortem before a major commitment (fundraise, acquisition, market entry) Quarterly risk review for leadership team When NOT to Use Single-variable financial sensitivity analysis (use CFO Advisor stress testing) Routine project risk assessment (use project management risk frameworks) Technical failure mode analysis (use engineering incident planning) --- Clarify First Before generating, confirm these inputs. If any is unknown or vague, ASK — do not assume: [ ] The (maximum 3) variables that actually keep leadership awake — the entire model is built around these; the wrong variables produce a useless scenario [ ] Probability, timeline, and quantified impact for each variable — "revenue drops" is not actionable; "$420K ARR at risk over 60 days" is, and severity levels depend on it [ ] Current baseline (ARR, runway in months, headcount) — cascade and severity math (e.g., runway going 14→8 months) requires the starting numbers [ ] Company stage — common scenario patterns and what counts as existential differ by stage Stop rule: ask only the 2-3 that most change the output. If the user says "just draft it," proceed and list your assumptions at the top of the artifact. …
How to use it
Reference it in AdaL, Claude Code, Cursor or any coding agent — nothing to install:
@skills borghei/scenario-war-room