Agent skill · marketing growth · aradotso
oransim-causal-marketing-twin
Causal digital twin for marketing simulation — predict campaign ROI, run counterfactual KOL swaps, and audit causal graphs before spending a dollar.
Why this skill is useful
Adds a causal simulation engine with executable scripts for marketing campaign analysis that the AI cannot generate on its own.
What it needs
Requires git, python installed locally. About 6k tokens when loaded. Last updated 2026-07-09. 70 stars on the source repository.
What this skill does
Oransim — Causal Digital Twin for Marketing Skill by ara.so — Daily 2026 Skills collection. Oransim is an open-source causal simulation engine for marketing teams. It lets you predict campaign ROI, run counterfactual "what if" scenarios (swap KOLs, reallocate budget, change platforms), and audit every prediction through a transparent 64-node causal graph — before spending a dollar. Core capabilities: Pre-launch ROI ranking across creative × KOL × budget combinations Mid-campaign do()-operator rollouts (e.g. swap KOL on day 3, see 14-day path diff) Post-mortem counterfactuals (what if we'd spent on 小红书 instead of 抖音?) LLM-backed "soul personas" for 1M+ virtual consumer agents Causal Neural Hawkes Process for temporal cascade simulation Per-arm counterfactual heads (TARNet / Dragonnet architecture) --- Installation Backend (mock mode — no API key needed) Backend (real LLM pipeline) Frontend --- Configuration All config via environment variables (see .env.example): Provider quick-reference Provider LLMPROVIDER LLMBASEURL Example model --- --- --- --- OpenAI openai https://api.openai.com/v1 gpt-4o DeepSeek openai https://api.deepseek.com/v1 deepseek-chat vLLM (local) openai http://localhost:8000/v1 any Anthropic anthropic (default) claude-sonnet-4-6 Gemini gemini (default) gemini-2.5-flash Qwen qwen (default) qwen-plus --- Key API Endpoints All endpoints served at http://localhost:8001. …
How to use it
Reference it in AdaL, Claude Code, Cursor or any coding agent — nothing to install:
@skills aradotso/oransim-causal-marketing-twin