Agent skill · business finance · alirezarezvani
commercial-forecaster
Use when building a bookings, ARR, pipeline or NRR forecast, or a commit, best-case and pipeline board number. Forecasts with bookings_forecaster.py, projects cohorts with cohort_arr_projector.py and scores stage confidence with funnel_confidence_scorer.py, showing every conversion assumption.
Why this skill is useful
Adds executable scripts for bookings forecasting and cohort-level ARR projection that provide structured outputs and insights not readily available to the AI.
What it needs
Requires python installed locally. About 6k tokens when loaded. Last updated 2026-08-05. 23,939 stars on the source repository.
What this skill does
commercial-forecaster Purpose Help Commercial leaders answer three questions at the forecast moment: 1. What's the commit / best-case / pipe-only number? (3-tier bookings forecast with disclosed assumptions) 2. Which cohorts are leaking, and is the consolidated NRR hiding the leak? (per-cohort NRR/GRR projection over horizon) 3. Which funnel stages are reliable, and which are statistical noise? (per-stage coefficient-of-variation confidence band) The skill recommends three forecast numbers + an explicit assumption block. The CRO presents the number, the board sees the assumptions, the theatre dies. When to use Building the quarterly bookings forecast for the board Preparing the QBR forecast where the CFO will ask "what's the commit, what's the best-case, what's the pipe-only" Projecting ARR for next 4-8 quarters using cohort retention data Suspecting a consolidated NRR number is hiding a leaky recent cohort Pipeline-coverage is shrinking and you need to know which stages are still trustworthy You're being asked for a "single number" and you need the structured answer that surfaces the assumption Do not use for: Backward-looking financial close + reporting → finance/financial-analysis Strategic financial planning (multi-year, scenario, fundraise) → c-level-advisor/cfo-advisor "Should we hire a VP Sales?" / territory design / comp plan → c-level-advisor/cro-advisor Setting prices → sibling pricing-strategist (projects revenue at prices already set) Per-deal discount approval → sibling deal-desk Workflow Step 1 — Intake pipeline + cohort + historical conversion data Fill assets/forecastintaketemplate.md (≈ 20 min). Captures: opportunity list with stage/amount/close-date/age/last-activity; historical stage-to-stage conversion across last 4Q and last 12Q; per-cohort ARR + per-quarter retention + expansion data; funnel stage names with 12-quarter conversion history. …
How to use it
Reference it in AdaL, Claude Code, Cursor or any coding agent — nothing to install:
@skills alirezarezvani/commercial-forecaster--24649f