Agent skill · research science · aiskillstore
reasoning-counterfactual
Evaluate alternative scenarios by simulating interventions on past decisions or hypothetical futures. Use when assessing decisions in hindsight, planning scenarios, or comparing paths not taken. Produces comparative analysis with probability-weighted outcomes.
Why this skill is useful
Provides a structured framework for evaluating decisions with probability-weighted outcomes that the AI wouldn't reliably generate on its own.
What it needs
About 6k tokens when loaded. Last updated 2026-08-07. 405 stars on the source repository.
What this skill does
Counterfactual Reasoning Simulate alternative realities. The logic of "what if" and decision evaluation. Type Signature When to Use Use counterfactual when: Evaluating past decisions ("Should we have...") Scenario planning ("What if X happens...") Comparing options not taken ("If we had chosen...") Strategic simulation ("If competitor does X...") Learning from outcomes ("Was our decision right?") Don't use when: Executing known process → Use Causal Explaining observation → Use Abductive Resolving disagreement → Use Dialectical Core Principles Minimal Intervention Change only what's necessary to test the hypothesis: Modify one variable at a time where possible Keep everything else constant (ceteris paribus) Trace downstream effects carefully Probability Weighting Alternative outcomes aren't certain: Assign probability to each projected outcome Consider multiple possible alternatives per intervention Avoid overconfidence in projections Asymmetry Awareness Counterfactual analysis has inherent biases: Hindsight makes alternatives seem clearer Survivors don't see paths that led to failure Confidence in projections often too high Four-Stage Process Stage 1: Actual World Purpose: Document the decision made and observed outcome. Components: Example: Stage 2: Intervention Purpose: Define the alternative decision to evaluate. Intervention Types: Type Description Example ------ ------------- --------- Price Different pricing decision "$30K instead of $50K" Timing Earlier or later action "Launched 3 months earlier" Strategy Different strategic choice "SMB-first instead of enterprise" Resource Different allocation "Hired sales earlier" Partner Different relationship "Partnered with X instead of Y" Components: Example: Stage 3: Alternative Projection Purpose: Project what would have happened under the intervention. Projection Method: 1. Identify decision point - Where paths diverge 2. Trace causal chain - What changes downstream? 3. …
How to use it
Reference it in AdaL, Claude Code, Cursor or any coding agent — nothing to install:
@skills aiskillstore/reasoning-counterfactual